Technicals II - Market Structure Shift

Let’s introduce the concept with bullish scenarios first, how everything looks like etc.…

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Theory

Introduction - Bullish example



In this case, we see price go lower, forms a bullish retracement then we see price running liquidity, Sellside liquidity in this case scenario. It then breaks out higher, once that high gets broken with momentum, we need to see clear displacements inside that run that breaks previous structure.


“We want to see price being illiquid here, it grabbed liquidity, so we have to see immediate injection to the upside.”


The move must have intent. You must see that it is a one-sided illiquid movement to the upside after it grabs sell-side liquidity. The longer price stays around that low, the higher the chances are that it becomes a good market shift. It has to have clear willingness to go higher after we see the run on liquidity.


We want to see that move be energetic. Not that it just runs to that displacement high as buyside liquidity, to then continue further dropping lower.


We want it to be as parabolic and one sides as it gets. We won’t always get that, but the first sign is to look for the imbalances being left behind.


Bearish example


Exactly the same scenario here, in this case we want to see price run buyside liquidity - an old high, or a consolidation. Ideally, we want to rally into those buy stops/ opposing higher TF PDA, so if we are waiting for a M5 shift to the downside, the best-case scenario would be for price to run buyside liquidity. Into some sort of m15 or 60m Array - Orderblock or Displacement. Reject that, distribute that liquidity there, and reprice lower very sharply leaving behind intent - displacements inside the range between the first expansion high and low.



Spotting the shift in market structure is something that can make or break your results. There are a lot of traps in the markets;


  • - Price running slowly towards the displacement low,

  • - Or running towards it, but leaving a wick there,

  • - Or reacting after running below the displacement low


All of these signs in price delivery are showing you that it's most likely not what we want to see. Price could go sideways from here, and range between the high and low of that expansion.

so…


  • 1 - Be sure of what you want to see;

  • 2 - Price must run buyside liquidity (in this case)


into some sort of HTF array and waste no time closing below that expansion higher.


This is exactly how high probability orderblocks are born and what we look to trade from.


Just as on the example on the right, what we want to see.



Traps in market shifts


This is a very common mistake lots of traders make, they end up in this exact market situation. Just because it’s a simple pattern, does not mean it’s always going to be a market shift.


Price running liquidity, and reversing doesn't always mean it’s a market shift, because many times when the higher TF move is directional, (let’s say bearish for now) We see a run on the old low, followed by the expansion higher above the high. This happens often on lower timeframes. On let’s say m5, whilst H4 or so is still on a run towards main DOL for that day/week. Price can then simply push above the highs, sweep the BSL, where pressure lies. Run into an array, and then continue lower. Taking out selling pressure, and early buying pressure.



Chart Example

In the above example, we see price take out SSLQP after NYMNO. Going from a state of seeking liquidity, to having found it and then distributing with intent = leaving behind imbalances.


Our higher timeframe is in line with our bullish direction. On this lower timeframe we see how price runs the Asia range low right after NYMNO -> Price grabs liquidity and gives us a clear m15 shift above that high. With clear imbalances inside of that bullish run, right in our reversal time in London. SO high opportunity of Low of the day being formed. This is where we pay most attention to.


In this case there was no pullback on the initial run, but enough entry opportunities on the base of the rally shown with the grey arrows.


Market shift + Liquidity pools


Sometimes we see price form a liquidity pool (EQH/EQL) - And let’s consider that price has moved aggressively lower from the higher TF POV and there are some bearish arrays above that BSLQP. Even if we are in a bullish array, be a bit more patient, demand more from the price delivery as it could also just be a BSL sweep instead of a market shift, just for price to go deeper into the higher TF bullish PDA.


The way we want to counter this is to make it a non-negotiable - When price moves higher, leaving imbalances and closes way above that high, that we don’t even need to question it. So, if price doesn't react sharply. We know to wait for development to found it if it’s a trap or if we are actually reversing.



Market shift + Divergence


“ADVANCED TECHNICALS – BE FOCUSSED.”


This is something lots of experienced traders don’t even have in their arsenals. It is being aware of the shift that happens after we have a crack in correlation with DXY - Divergence.

If DXY runs BSLQP and goes lower, but EURUSD fails to do that, instead forms a higher low - Divergence, and moves higher - that can be a market shift already.


We don't need to see the sweep on EU if there is divergence with DXY.


If price forms that higher lower, and seems to be forming that LRLR run, always check with DXY to see if it’s not a divergence kicking in.


Chart examples


  1. - Price runs sell side liquidity - seeking liquidity into opposing array - m15 displacement;

  2. - Sharp reaction higher, leaving behind intent. Low of the day;

  3. - Imbalances left in the same range which induced the SSL;

  4. - Then slices the market shift area, no trouble breaking that high.



  1. - Price runs BSL - seeking liquidity into opposing array - m15 displacement, inducing BSL twice;

  2. - Sharp reaction lower, even on the small first move you have intent being shown;

  3. - Imbalances being left behind in the first sharp move, and the second move;

  4. - Then slices the market shift trigger.



  1. - Price runs BSL and taps into our pressure block;

  2. - Sharp reaction lower targeting the LRLR at the initial MS;

  3. - Shows intent and creates a BPR which price distributes into;

  4. - slices the displacement and the actual swing low as a market shift trigger.


Project & Resources

Project & Resources

Project & Resources